Due to the unspecified framework of the Paris Agreement, many countries, and especially the most developed ones, which are also the largest emitters, are far from fulfilling their emission reduction targets. The latest UN report shows that the current national targets will lead to the warming of the planet over 3º Celsius by 2100.
This increase in temperature is expected to drastically rise the sea level. Many island states and coastal cities will end up beneath the surface. The report also shows that, after three years of stagnation, the global level of CO₂ emissions has risen again in 2017. So, urgent action is needed at the global level and also an increase in the promised national emission reduction goals.
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our time. Although it is spoken of in distant time frames, such as 2030 or 2100, we can already feel the consequences, whether it's a hot wave that hit Europe this year or a devastating hurricane and monsoons recorded in America and Asia. The need to tackle this problem brought together representatives of 197 countries in Bonn, at the 23rd Conference of the parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP23). Around 20,000 representatives of countries, the media, non-government and business sectors had worked during two weeks (November 7th-16th) to reach an agreement on the next steps to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Paris Agreements (We’ll Always Have Paris!)
The Paris Agreement, a historic agreement on climate change (We'll always have Paris!), was reached in 2015 at the 21st Conference of the member states in that city (COP21). In this agreement, 195 countries committed themselves to limiting global warming to less than 2 º Celsius by 2100. It was the first time that almost all the nations of the world agreed on the importance of climate change.
What Has Happened Since Paris to This Day? (Will We Always Have Paris?)
After the elections in 2016, the new US administration completely changed the course of the national energy policy and attitude towards fossil fuels and announced that it would withdraw from the Paris Agreement [1]. The European Union has committed itself to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 in comparison to 1990 levels. However, the EU didn’t give clear steps to achieve this and it is difficult to assess whether the Union could actually have more ambitious goals. China is among the few countries that are on track to reach their climate goals within the framework of the Paris Agreement, but is still one of the largest fossil fuel consumers and one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters.
Germany, which is identified as the leader in the fight against climate change, has not yet set clear deadlines for the abandonment of coal and other fossil fuels, despite the ambitious energy policy (Energiewende). However, despite all that, a large number of countries lead a decisive and ambitious climate politics. Canada, Great Britain, Finland, Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, Mexico are among twenty countries that have clearly set deadlines for stopping the use of coal as an energy source.
What Was Expected of COP23?
Despite its significance, the Paris Agreement left many unresolved issues. The agreement between the countries was achieved on a voluntary basis and without clearly defined obligations, bearing in mind that otherwise many members would not have agreed to participate in the Agreement in the first place. However, the detailed elaboration of obligations and steps for their fulfillment is planned as a negotiation process that will last until 2018, in order for all technical elements of the Agreement to be adopted in 2018 at COP24.
Due to the unspecified framework of the Paris Agreement, many countries, and especially the most developed ones, which are also the largest emitters, are far from fulfilling their emission reduction targets. The latest UN report (United Nations Environment's Gap Report) shows that the current national targets will lead to the warming of the planet by over 3 ° C by 2100. This increase in temperature is expected to drastically rise the sea level. Many island states and coastal cities will end up beneath the surface. The report also shows that, after three years of stagnation, the global level of CO2 emissions has risen again in 2017. So, urgent action is needed at the global level and an increase in the promised national emission reduction targets.
A key COP23 result was supposed to be the elaboration of the Work Programme under the Paris Agreement (the so-called Paris Regulations). Work programme is a type of action plan that needs to define the practical elements of the Paris Agreement, such as transparency in monitoring the progress of all countries in achieving goals and also the ability to check the increase of ambition of objectives. Closer definition of the financing the fight against climate change, as well as raising the ambition of individual national goals was expected. Also, the Agreement provides the so-called Facilitative Dialogue, which will be the basis for making the Global Greenhouse Gas Inventory (Global Stocktake) in 2018.
One of the most sensitive issues was the issue of loss and damage imposed by island and other developing countries that are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This term refers to irreversible losses caused by climate change (such as lost lives, cultural and natural heritage) and damage that occurred (mainly on infrastructure such as roads, power lines, etc.). Developing countries are already suffering enormous damage from drought, floods, hurricanes and other extreme weather conditions caused by emissions of greenhouse gases emitted during the economic development of today's most developed countries (USA, EU, Japan, etc.). Bearing all this in mind, developing countries believe that they should receive compensation from developed countries due to the effects of the climate change they are exposed to, which they have not caused themselves. Developed countries reject that. This, among other things, would raise numerous issues of financial and legal responsibility for climate change.
Certainly the most important expectation from COP23 was to solve the financing of projects for combating global climate change. At the 15th conference in 2009 in Copenhagen (COP15), member states pledged to allocate a total of $100 billion annually by 2020 for this goal. The Green Climate Fund, established in 2010, is intended to manage these funds and with the conclusion of the Paris Agreement it would play a key role in preventing the warming of the planet above 2º C. However, the mechanisms for monitoring Fund resources, implemented projects and their real effects are still unclear.
Few Results
The results of the COP23 conference in Bonn may, in a word, be called modest. The most important outcome of COP23 is considered to be the Talanoa Dialogue, as a direct consequence of Fiji's presidency of the conference [2]. Talanoa dialogue was foreseen to be a consultative process that will take place during next year, in order to raise the ambition of the climate goals of the states by 2030. The dialogue will be based on three key questions: 1) Where are we? 2) Where do we want to be? and 3) How do we get there? However, in the Final Declaration COP23, a vague vocabulary was used and it is not clear in what manner will the Dialogue be organized. The process is expected to begin officially in January 2018.
Some progress has been made in drafting the Work Programme under the Paris Agreement, although the definition of the most important points is left for May 2018. So far, the chapters of the Program that determine how the emissions will be monitored and how the countries will report to the UNFCCC have been agreed upon.
Financing remains the most sensitive and also the most important topic. Developing countries believe that developed countries did not do enough and did not fulfill their previously agreed obligations regarding the Green Climate Fund. A positive step has been made by the EU, which has pledged to channel 800 million euros by 2020 towards the countries of the Pacific region. However, this is still far from the required level of funding.
Some progress has been made regarding the future development of the Adaptation Fund, which is directed towards the developing countries of the world, and established under the Kyoto Protocol. In the Final Declaration the states have agreed that the Adaptation Fund should be operational and within the framework of the Paris Agreement. In this sense, about 90 million Euros is intended for the Fund.
The subject of loss and damage issues - which was at the top of the priorities of the underdeveloped countries - did not find a place in the negotiations during COP23. It is considered the third pillar of the fight against climate change, along with adaptation and mitigation, but unlike these two topics, funding for it is not provided. That question, sensitive politically and also morally, carries acceptance of the responsibility for climate change from industrially developed countries whose cumulative emissions have contributed to climate change, and, as already said in the text, compensation for the least developed and disadvantaged countries that suffer direct consequences of that change.
The transparency of the states’ progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement has been somewhat improved. In the Final Declaration of COP23, two additional overviews of the state of national emissions were agreed in 2018 and 2019.
Next steps
The next conference of the members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP24) will be held in November 2018 in the Polish city of Katowice. Given that the resolution of the numerous technical details of the Paris Agreement has been postponed, the expectations of COP24 are high. First of all, the Work Programme under the Paris Agreement and the Talanoa dialogue must be completed by that time/then. However, bearing in mind that Poland is one of the largest coal users in the EU and a country that is loudly opposed to the provisions of the Paris Agreement, it is expected that resolving these issues at COP24 will even be further complicated.
Serbia on COP 23
The Serbian delegation to the COP23 in Bonn was led by Minister of Environmental Protection Goran Trivan. On November 15th, in the part of the high-level Conference program, he presented Serbia's policies and activities in the fight against climate change and adaptation to changing climatic conditions. On November 17, the Minister chaired the Regional Cooperation Council (RCC), which was held on the margins of the Conference, attended by Ministers of the regional countries. On this occasion, the Declaration on ecological and climatic action in the Western Balkans was adopted as a common expression of the commitment of states to jointly address the growing climate challenges.
USA at COP 23
The United States announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, but the US delegation attended the Conference and participated in the negotiations. Interestingly, for the first time, the United States did not have an official pavilion for presentation at the Conference. The only public appearance of the US delegation was at a forum where they actually promoted the use of fossil fuels to combat poverty and global climate change. This, of course, aroused the sharp disapproval of those present who broke up the debate by singing about how coal is destroying the planet to the melody of the American anthem. In addition to the official US delegation, an alternative delegation representing a coalition entitled We Are Still In, made up of US governors, mayors, representatives of large corporations, scientific and educational institutions, also appeared at COP23. Led by the former Mayor of New York, Michael R. Blumberg, this alternative delegation expressed at COP23 the commitment of over 100 million Americans to participate in the fight against climate change, despite the official views and policies of the new US President's administration.
Mirjana Jovanović, Belgrade Open School
This text is published in the XXXII issue of the newsletter, which can be accessed here.
Photo source: Kelly Sikkema
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
[1] Interestingly, some US states, like Oregon and Washington, have announced a decisive fight against climate change despite the official US energy policy.
[2] Work Talanoa in the Pacific’s tradition means "telling stories without hidden intentions" and refers to a traditional approach to dialogue that is being practiced in Fiji. This approach implies an inclusive, participatory and transparent process of conversation in which participants address each other directly and openly.