We are in dire need for transition from the fossil-fuel based energy system, towards the system based on renewable energy sources. It is, however, necessary to involve social aspects, besides environmental and energy aspects, in energy policy planning, in order to make it sustainable in a long term.

 The year is 2050. Serbia is almost out of coal reserves, due to intensive exploiting of this resource. A landscape of a surface coal pit, very much resembling the surface of the Moon, extends all the way to the horizon, covering most of the territory of Lazarevac municipality, as well as municipalities of Obrenovac, Aranđelovac, and many others. In the meantime, more than 20 villages have been displaced because pits were expanding. People who are still living in the area suffer from severe health problems, mostly respiratory, not to mention that population of the people suffering from other disorders, such as malign tumors, is also on the rise. Despite the promises made towards the people, related to the economic benefits of new thermal power plants, nothing has changed for the better, since due to automatization and efficient exploitation, the need for actually hiring people in the production process is continuously decreasing. Last but not least, Serbia is paying severe financial penalties since emission limits for CO2 are constantly being surpassed.

This dystopian scenario is very likely to happen if we continue with basing our energy system on burning coal. Republic of Serbia is even planning to increase production capacities for thermal power plants by building new blocks, such as Kostolac B3 and, furthermore, bringing back the once forgotten plan to implement Kolubara B thermal power plant project. These two projects alone would contribute to capacities of Serbia’s dirty energy sector with new 700 MW, which would definitely make Serbia sentenced to burning coal for electricity in the long run. Just energy transition should swiftly be started in order to avoid these scenarios.

But what is actually a just energy transition, you may ask? It could be defined as a transition from the system in which energy is being generated dominantly from dirty energy sources, towards the system based on renewable energy sources.

The European Union has, with the goal of carrying out just energy transition and mitigating effects of climate change, developed a short-term, a mid-term and a long-term energy and climate policy.

The short-term has been given in the Europe 2020 Strategy, which predicts reduction of GHG gasses by 20% until 2020, compared with emissions from 1990, improving energy efficiency by 20% and increase share of renewables in energy consumption by 20%.

The midterm Strategy is defined through the 2030 Climate and energy framework, brokered in 2014, which means GHG emissions reduction by 40%, increasing share of renewables in final consumption by 32% and improving energy efficiency by 32,5 %, in comparison with 1990 as the baseline year.

The long-term energy policy of the EU has been defined by two strategic documents- 2050 Energy roadmap and the Roadmap for a competitive low-carbon Europe. Together, these two documents are providing a framework for the development of the energy sector and the entire EU economy by 2050, with the ultimate goal to carry out a total transition towards sustainable use of resources.

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It’s the year 2050. The energy transition was carried out. Republic of Serbia has decided, back in 2018, to shift its energy sector towards renewable energy. Subsidies and investments in solar, wind and hydro-based energy consumption, resulted in almost entire energy sector based on renewable energy. During the process or reducing and abandoning coal, health costs have been drastically reduced and air quality significantly improved, which is clearly shown from all measuring stations. 

However, it’s not all roses. Once proud industrial centers, such as Kostolac, Lazarevac and Obrenovac, are all on the verge of collapsing. These local communities were practically left out with no income. Majority of the population decided to move away, with remaining population mostly demanding on welfare. These places, once wealthy industrial centers, were caught off guard when the energy transition kicked in, and to this day they remain black stains on Serbia’s bright green canvas.

The second scenario is the reason why energy transition is not enough – it has to be a just energy transition. In addition to environmental and energy aspects, It’s important to involve social aspect when planning a long-term sustainable energy policy.

The idea of just energy transition in Serbia is on the path of its development. The strongest proponents, such as civil society organizations and local communities, those who are the most exposed to the effects of coal-based energy production, still have very little influence in development of energy policy. The most powerful actors on energy map have little interest in just energy transition. Moreover, they are mostly against it, since it would hamper their privileged positions. In some EU countries, trade unions are some of the most powerful advocates for just energy transition, since they recognized that the future lies in green, renewable energy sources, and they do not want to be on the losing side of this transition.

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In the last couple of years, through reconstructing the existing thermal power plants, energy capacities are drastically increased, which opens certain space for just energy transition. The fact is that the coal will remain the most dominant energy source for the next 10 to 15 years, with thermal power plant still operating during that time, but with creating preconditions, in the meantime, for initiating a just energy transition. By building up new biomass, wind, solar and hydro-based energy facilities, hand in hand with implementing energy efficiency measures. It is necessary, nonetheless, to carry this out in cooperation with educational institutions, trade unions, civil sector, economy, experts and local communities, through developing a plan for social transition parallel to the one related to energy.

So, let’s give it another go.

The year is 2050. This time, energy transition has been carried out in a socially accountable manner. Serbia is free from coal dependence. A gradual transition has happened in a democratic way, with everyone taking part in a transition: energy experts, educational institutions, local communities, trade unions, civil society and others. The energy production is decentralized and under control of local communities. The regions that were once dependent on coal were ready to embrace the energy transition. Educational programs enabling workers from the coal sector to re-qualify and learn new skills, making them ready to join the renewable energy sector. Other part of the labor force was retired. The economy is much more diversified and climate resilient. The overall quality of life is increased because, besides stable jobs, the environment is much healthier, cleaner and safer, thanks to a successful just energy transition.

Predrag Momčilović, Belgrade Open School

Photo credits: Freepik