COP is an acronym for regular annual meetings - conferences bringing together signatory states to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Conference of parties – COP). These conferences represent annual meetings that discuss means for the world to halt climate change and the place where global climate policy is determined. The number that is added to these three letters represents the ordinal number of the summit, so e.g. COP26 refers to the 26th United Nations Summit on Climate Change.
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was signed in Rio in May 1992. Signatory countries agreed that joint and coordinated action by all parties is necessary to limit the negative anthropogenic impacts on the climate system. In order to achieve these goals, it has been agreed to hold conferences every year to discuss means in which a low-carbon future can be achieved.
Since the first Berlin Conference in 1995, only last year's conference was postponed due to coronavirus pandemic, while the others were held regularly once a year. These events are seen as distinguished diplomatic carnivals and one of the most important international events of the year. Delegations from almost all countries in the world, numerous diplomats, scientists, businessmen, representatives of civil society, religious officials, journalists, activists are gathered in the host city and together they point to the urgency of solving the climate crisis.
During the last quarter of a century, conferences have led to the establishment of various types of agreements - from mandates (Berlin 1995), protocols (Kyoto 1997), action plans (Bali 2007), to agreements (Paris 2015). The brightest moment happened in the City of Light in 2015, when the Paris Climate Agreement was reached.
Why is Paris important?
Paris hosted the 21st conference of parties and gathered representatives of 196 countries. Over 36,000 people took part in two-week negotiations that led to the adoption of the climate accord. The agreement was adopted on December 12, and entered into force on November 4 next year, after a third of the signatory countries adopted it in their parliaments. What was initiated three years earlier in Durban, South Africa, when it was agreed that the adoption of a new climate agreement by 2015 is necessary, was finally completed in Paris.
Objective harmonization aspect is very important since the UN bodies function on the principle of political equality – each member country has one vote of equal strength. This means that regardless of size, development, population, economic or military power, votes are counted equally. Therefore, the vote of the United States, Russia or China is equal to the vote of significantly smaller countries such as Tuvalu, Maldives or Papua New Guinea. Their opposite views on certain topics make it significantly more difficult to find a solution that is acceptable to all parties, which is why many conferences have failed in this quest (Copenhagen 2009).
Main objective proclaimed by the Paris Agreement is to limit the rise in global temperature significantly below 2 °C (ideally up to 1.5 °C) by the end of this century compared to the pre-industrial period. Increasing the resilience and ability to adapt to changing climatic conditions of the most endangered countries is emphasized, as well as to provide the financial resources necessary to achieve the intended goals.
Compared to the previous agreements, the Paris Agreement abolishes the distinction between developed and countries in development. Additionally, it insists that every country, in accordance with its capacities and capabilities, should contribute to the fight against climate change. That is why the Paris Agreement leaves room for each state to independently assess how much it can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by defining the so-called Nationally determined contributions (NDCs).
Furthermore, the Paris Agreement envisions a gradual increase in intentions to prevent climate change and halt global warming. In the years that followed its adoption, four more meetings were held (COP22 - Marrakech, COP23 - Bonn, COP24 - Katowice and COP25 - Madrid) which served for further elaboration and operationalization of the Paris Agreement. Finally, COP26 held in Glasgow this year, marked the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement.
(In)sufficient ambitions
Five years after the summit in Paris and the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the 2020 coronavirus pandemic was declared. Seeing as the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), agreed by the representatives of the Paris Summit, are not ambitious enough and will not lead to the goal of keeping the global temperature rise well below 2 ° C, the signatories agreed to present new nationally determined contributions every five years. Renewed NDCs should be ambitious enough, in order to bring us closer to the goal: limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 ° C. Since the conference of parties was not held last year, a lot was expected from Glasgow Conference, which lasted from 1 November-12 November 2021.
First of all, raising climate ambition, as well as raising the issue of strengthening the system for financial support to developing countries was expected. Twelve years ago, rich nations pledged to channel 100 billion dollars a year to the Adaptation Fund, aimed at supporting developing countries in adapting to climate change. However, this number was not reached. Additionally, operationalization of the Paris Agreement Rulebook, adopted at the COP25 conference in Madrid, was another topic that was expected, as well as resolving the question of loss and damage – compensation for the losses that the most vulnerable countries suffer due to climate change impact.
Many countries submitted their new NDC before the Glasgow Summit, while some waited until the very beginning of the conference. Likewise, there were countries that did not present them. Serbia is among the latter ones. Based on the new NDCs, the UN estimates that the global temperature will rise by 2.7 ° C by the end of this century. During COP26, countries expressed their new climate ambitions, which have not been officially adopted, but they show that we could keep the temperature rise to 1.8 ° C by 2100. These estimates should be taken with a grain of salt as they are not official and depend on the consistent implementation of the promises made. Certainly, we are still far from 1.5 ° C.
During the two weeks in Glasgow, many initiatives were proposed and considered in order to reduce the negative consequences of climate change. Among the most important are the initiatives to reduce methane emissions. Methane is a gas that, although significantly less present in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, has a large share in causing the greenhouse effect. That is why more than 100 countries have signed an agreement that they will reduce the level of methane emissions by 30% by 2030 compared to 2020. Many countries that emit large amounts of methane are signatories to this agreement. However, China, India and Russia, which are in the top five countries in the world in terms of emissions of methane, have not signed the said agreement. In addition, during the first week of negotiations, more than 100 countries signed an agreement to stop deforestation on their territories by 2030, including Brazil. The signing of the agreement on abandoning coal by 2040, by 45 countries, attracted a lot of attention. This agreement was also signed by Poland, but despite that, the Polish Minister of Climate and Environment stated that the abandonment of coal in Poland will still happen later, by 2049.
Agreement on the content of the Glasgow Climate Pact was reached on November 13. Opinions differ on whether this pact will lead to the necessary changes. While some countries in development believe that submitted climate ambitions are not big enough, many developed countries seem to think this is a historic agreement. Difference in this document and what represents a significant shift compared to all the previous agreements is that the possibility of abandoning fossil fuels is mentioned for the first time. However, within the Glasgow Climate Pact, at the insistence of India, and with the support of China, instead of the term "coal phase out", the term "reduced coal use" was eventually agreed on. This change has disappointed many because it shows a reduction in climate ambition and an insufficiently strong stance in abandoning fossil fuels as the main source of greenhouse gas emissions. Ultimately, the chairman of this year's conference, Alok Sharma, concluded that the agreement is historic, but that the success of the accord depends on the success of its implementation in signatory countries.
European Union posited that it is necessary to emphasize the urgency of the global response to the climate crisis, as well as the need for a just climate transition at the global level. The European Union, as part of the Green Deal which aims to reduce the negative consequences of climate change, has set the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Intermediate step in achieving this goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, as part of the Fit for 55 package.
Serbia in Glasgow
At this year's summit, Serbia behaved like a student that didn’t finish its homework. After being among the first countries to submit its NDC to the UNFCCC secretariat in 2015, Serbia appeared in Glasgow without an updated nationally determined contribution to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. Even though only a year ago, during the Climate Ambition Summit 2020, the President of Serbia stated that Serbia is ready to become a low-carbon society by 2050, and that it is inclined to triple its objectives for reducing GHG emissions by 2030 - nothing of the beforementioned came into fruition. Serbia still doesn’t have an adopted low-carbon development strategy (although it has been prepared) and has not updated its nationally determined contribution (although the process began in 2019). Despite the fact that Serbian president raised relevant questions regarding the economic support for the fight against climate change, ultimately, Serbia only delt in generalities in Glasgow instead of dealing in specifics in how it will reduce GHG emissions and adapt to the changing climate conditions. Due to low climate ambitions and proposed changes to the law that will allow industrial plants to continue operating without integrated permits for pollution control and prevention, Serbia won the infamous "Fossil of the Day" title in Glasgow on November 10, together with the United States and Australia.
The fact is, the Western Balkans region is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Even if global GHG emissions are to stabilize, by the end of this century the Western Balkans can expect a rise in the average temperature from 2.0 ° C to 3.0 ° C. If global GHG emissions continue with this tempo, the region with experience the temperature rise of 4.0 ° C-5.0 ° C, compared to today's average temperature. This means that the already existing summer heat waves and droughts will increase (in regularity and intensity) and that by the end of the century, droughts will prevail throughout the region. The annual distribution of precipitation will continue to change, causing floods, which we are already witnessing. Climate change will endanger drinking water supplies, reduce the quality and quantity of agricultural yields, increase energy consumption for cooling in the summer and create conditions for the spread of new diseases.
Judging by the information presented in Glasgow, Serbia is not ready for such consequences of climate change. Therefore, we need climate action - immediately.
The text was published in the issue 78 of "Let's talk about negotiations". (available in Serbian language only).
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